Irakli Kobakhidze: “The GDP per capita was USD 4,300 in 2020; it will exceed USD 10,000 in 2025.”
Verdict: FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is HALF TRUE.
The GDP per capita was USD 4,300 in 2020 and USD 9,200 in 2024 when measured at current prices according to GeoStat. The Ministry of Finance’s baseline scenario projects it will reach USD 10,000 in 2025.
A 133% increase at current prices does not equate to a 133% growth in the real economy as exchange rate fluctuations and inflation significantly distort the picture. The GDP per capita grew by 58% from USD 4,680 in 2020 to USD 7,360 in 2025 measured in constant 2015 pries. The total growth rate would be even lower at 48% as compared to the pandemic period.
Whilst the nominal figures are correct, omitting such details exaggerate the scale of success. Considering the above, FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is HALF TRUE.
Analysis
Commenting on the economy, Irakli Kobakhidze stated: “I want to remind you that the economy was around USD 4,300 per capita at the end of 2020 and today it has grown to USD 9,200 per capita. It will exceed USD 10,000 for the first time in history. The economy has more than doubled in USD terms.”
The GDP per capita was USD 4,300 in 2020, rising to USD 9,200 in 2024, with a 2025 baseline projection of USD 10,000 according to GeoStat.
The nominal GDP grew by 135% over five years when measured in USD whilst in GEL it increased by 107% from GEL 13,375 to GEL 27,700. The real cumulative growth was even lower – 56%.
The nominal GDP is affected by inflation and calculating it in foreign currency adds exchange rate fluctuations as another factor. The difference becomes more pronounced over the long term.
Graph 1: GDP Per Capita in Current Prices
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia, Ministry of Finance of Georgia
The GDP per capita fell 5% in USD terms from USD 4,530 in 2012 to USD 4,300 in 2020 whilst in GEL it grew by 79% from GEL 7,500 to GEL 13,400. The economy neither contracted nor grew to that extent in real terms. The GDP per capita rose 29% during 2012-2020, from GEL 9,700 to GEL 12,500, when measured in 2019 constant prices. When comparing data across years, the GDP calculated in constant prices best reflects the real picture.
Irakli Kobakhidze likely referred to 2025 when mentioning USD 10,000 and the projected figure at current prices aligns with it. The GDP per capita is expected to reach USD 10,000 under the baseline scenario whilst in the optimistic scenario – USD 10,100. The projection in constant prices is not provided in the document although it can be estimated using economic growth data.
GeoStat calculates the GDP in constant prices only in the national currency. The GDP per capita in 2019 prices rose by 46% between 2020 and 2024 – from GEL 12,500 to GEL 18,300. The GDP grew 7,6% over ten months. If the aforementioned pace continues, it will be 57% higher than in 2020.
The World Bank calculates the GDP in USD at constant 2015 prices. Georgia’s GDP per capita rose 47% between 2020 and 2024 – from USD 4,660 to USD 6,840 in 2015 constant prices. If the 7.6% growth rate persists, it will reach around USD 7,330, representing a 58% increase – not 133%.
The large discrepancy is due to the exchange rate changes and inflation. The average USD exchange rate was GEL 3,11 in 2020; in 2025 (January-November) it was GEL 2.75. Additionally, consumer prices have risen by 32% since 2020.
Beyond exchange rates and inflation, 2020 was a pandemic year, during which most economies contracted sharply, followed by strong growth in 2021 when the base effect is considered.
The GDP per capita will increase by 111% even at current prices, from USD 4,740 in 2019 to USD 10,000 in 2025, whilst in constant prices it rises 47% – from USD 4,975 to USD 7,360.
Graph 2: GDP Per Capita (USD)
Source: World Bank, Ministry of Finance of Georgia
When measured at current prices, the GDP per capita was USD 4,300 in 2020 and is projected to reach USD 10,000 in 2025 under the baseline scenario, reflecting a 133% increase. However, growth over five years is much lower at 58% in constant prices – from USD 4,660 to USD 7,360 – and drops further to 48% over six years as compared to the pre-pandemic period – from USD 4,975 to USD 7,360. Whilst the nominal figures are correct, omitting such details exaggerate the scale of success. Considering the above, FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is HALF TRUE.
