Georgia’s economic growth is expected to slow in 2026, returning to pre-pandemic levels, according to the UN report. The forecast also indicates a slowdown in GDP growth across most CIS countries.
The economy grew at an average annual rate of 4.7% between 2013 and 2019 before the pandemic during the rule of the Georgian Dream party with the lowest growth of 3.4% recorded in 2015-2016 and the highest at 6.1% in 2018. The years 2020 and 2021 were impacted by the pandemic and recovery and should be considered an exception. The average annual growth reached 8.9% between 2022 and 2025.
Graph 1: GDP Growth Rate in Georgia
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
The high growth rate was largely driven by the base effect in 2021 – most countries recorded unusually strong growth that year, similar to Georgia.
The situation began to change from 2022 when the pandemic’s effects had mostly subsided and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war started to influence the economy, contributing in part to the acceleration of growth. Remittances from Russia increased by 400%, exceeding USD 2 billion in the first year of the war. Remittances from Russia had been on a declining trend prior to the war: Russia accounted for 54% of total remittances in 2013, dropping to 18% by 2021. The share consistently fell year by year during the aforementioned period. However, it jumped sharply to 47% in 2022, then declined to 37% in 2023 and 16% in 2024.
Re-exports have picked up since 2013, reaching a 53% share of total exports. Kyrgyzstan became the country’s top export partner in 2024 – a country that had never ranked in the top ten before the war.
Light vehicles hold the largest share of exported products, accounting for over 39% of total exports from January to November 2025.
The trend that began in 2023 strengthened in 2024-2025. Kyrgyzstan remains the top partner as of 11 months of 2025 – with Kazakhstan following. Furthermore, markets in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have also become more active.
Although a large portion of these vehicles likely end up in Russia, Georgia is not violating imposed sanctions as exports go through Central Asian countries rather than directly to Russia. Exports to Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan are not considered a sanctions breach.
It is difficult to quantify exactly how the war affected Georgia’s economic growth and its share in that growth. However, it is reasonable to consider the dampening of this effect as one of the reasons for the slowdown in growth. Remittances from Russia did not decline substantially in absolute terms in 2025. Whilst the re-exports to Central Asia increased, the pace of growth in re-exports slowed.
Georgia was not the only country whose GDP growth accelerated during the Russia-Ukraine war – high growth was also recorded in Armenia and the Central Asian countries.
The definition of the region does not cover only the neighbouring countries. Depending on who conducts the survey, the number and names of countries included in the region vary. Although Georgia has not been a CIS member since 2009, the UN still considers it within the CIS context with a special note.
Table 1: GDP Growth Rates of Georgia, Ukraine and CIS Member States
Source: UN
Fuel importers in CIS countries outside of Georgia also recorded significant growth in 2022-2025 as compared to the pre-pandemic period – specifically, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. However, the 2026 forecast for all four countries is significantly lower as in Georgia.
Globally, the expected growth rate in 2026 is projected to decline slightly by 0.1 of a percentage point as compared with 2025, reaching 2.7%. Growth by continent is forecasted to rise in North America from 1.9% to 2%, remain steady at 2.4% in Central and Latin America, decline in Europe from 1.4% to 1.2% (including a drop in the EU from 1.5% to 1.3%), fall slightly in Asia from 4.2% to 4.1%, increase in Oceania from 1.7% to 2.2% and remain at 4% in Africa.
International organisations and financial institutions typically revise their forecasts during the reporting year based on observed trends.
Georgia’s economy has grown faster than planned in recent years, prompting both international organisations and domestic authorities – including the government and the National Bank – to adjust their forecasts upward. The 2022 state budget was initially based on a 6% growth whilst actual growth reached 11%. The 2023 budget was initially based on 5% growth, the 2024 budget – on 5.2% and the 2025 budget – on 6%. The discrepancy was the smallest in case of 2025. The 2026 budget is also based on 5% growth whilst the World Bank forecasts 5.5%. The actual growth rate for 2026 will only be known in 2027.
