Irakli Kobakhidze: “Georgia’s economy will surpass GEL 100 billion and the GDP per capita will exceed USD 10,000 for the first time in 2025.”
Verdict: FactCheck leaves Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement WITHOUT VERDICT.
Georgia’s GDP at current prices amounted to GEL 93 billion in 2024 whilst the forecast for 2025 constitutes GEL 101 billion. The economy grew by 7.6% between January and October, exceeding planned targets, which provides ground to consider the GEL-101-billion forecast realistic.
The GDP per capita stood at USD 9,140 in 2024 whilst the projected figure for 2025 is USD 10,000. This indicator is also considered attainable as with the overall economic output.
Although the figures cited by Irakli Kobakhidze correspond to reality, the emphasis on the word “first” is overstated. Even with modest economic growth, the of the economy typically exceeds the previous year’s level and crosses new thresholds each year. The GDP at current prices reached a record of GEL 49.8 billion due to inflation in 2020 amidst a 6.3% economic contraction.
Whilst the cited statistical data are accurate, they are insufficient to fully assess the situation. Thus, FactCheck left Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement WITHOUT VERDICT.
Considering that the figures are accurate but there is an attempt to present nominal growth as an event of particular significance, FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is MOSTLY TRUE.
Analysis
When commenting on the economy, Irakli Kobakhidze stated: “Our economy will surpass GEL 100 billion for the first time and the GDP per capita will exceed GEL 10,000 for the first time.”
Georgia’s GDP reached GEL 93 billion in 2024 whilst under the baseline scenario the 2025 forecast constitutes GEL 101 billion. Given that the economy grew by 7.6% above planned targets over ten months, reaching the GEL-100-billion threshold should be easily achievable. In reality, the issue lies elsewhere. The of the economy exceeds all previous years’ figures each year even under conditions of low economic growth – a natural phenomenon. Moreover, the GDP calculated at current prices is influenced by inflation and may increase even during an economic crisis. Despite a 6.3% contraction of the economy in 2020, the GDP at current prices still rose slightly – from GEL 49.7 billion to GEL 49.8 billion. The economy doubled between 2019 and 2025 measured at current prices whilst over the same period the real economy grew by 47%. The gap between the real GDP and the GDP calculated at current prices was driven by inflation. Consumer prices increased by 39% between 2020 and 2025.
Graph 1: GDP (GEL billion)
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
The USD 10,000 per capita figure is based on the baseline scenario as with the overall GDP. Unlike calculations in the national currency, measuring the GDP at current prices in foreign currency introduces an additional factor – exchange rate fluctuations. Calculated in dollars at current prices, the GDP per capita fell by 5%, from USD 4,350 in 2012 to USD 4,300 in 2020, whilst real growth reached 29%.
Both figures cited – GEL 100 billion and USD 10,000 – come from the baseline scenario. Although economic growth higher than planned suggests the forecast is achievable, emphasising that the economy surpasses GEL 100 billion for the first time is largely inconsequential. The economy exceeded GEL 90 billion for the first time in 2024 and in 2023 it similarly surpassed GEL 80 billion. A similar pattern applies to the GDP per capita.
Whilst the cited statistical data are accurate, they are insufficient to fully assess the situation. Thus, FactCheck left Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement WITHOUT VERDICT.
