Nugzar Tsiklauri, Member of the Parliamentary Minority, stated at the plenary session held on 12 June 2013: ''Investments are declining in our country which is verified by the National Statistics Office of Georgia.”
FactCheck wondered whether or not investments are in fact declining in Georgia.
MP Nugzar Tsiklauri’s statement is based on the data by the National Statistics Office of Georgia. Correspondingly, we checked the fact on the website of the National Statistics Office of Georgia.
The National Statistics Office of Georgia published the preliminary data of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on 6 June 2013. According to the statistics, FDI in Georgia amounted to USD 226 million. In the first quarter of 2012, this indicator reached USD 269 million, in the second quarter - USD 219 million, in the third quarter - USD 195 million and in the fourth quarter - USD 181 million.
According to the data, as compared to the last quarter of 2012, the volume of FDI has increased by USD 45 million. Compared to the corresponding period in the previous year, it has decreased by USD 43 million.
According to the National Statistics Office of Georgia, investments in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2012 were declining. After the last quarter of 2011, it was the first time in the first quarter of 2013 when the volume of investments increased as compared to the previous quarter.
The first quarter is considered to be economically passive; every subsequent quarter is more active than the previous quarter and so the most active quarter is the fourth. It should be noted that as compared to the most active previous quarter, investments in the first quarter of 2013 increased. It should also be taken into consideration that elections took place in Georgia in 2012. According to economic experts, elections have some impact on the investment environment.
The National Statistics Office does not have a methodology of seasonal adjustments. Accordingly, if the data is not seasonally adjusted, comparing any quarter to any other quarter (adjacent or non-adjacent) is not possible and only comparing parallel quarters of different years can be done.
Nugzar Tsiklauri states that the decrease in investments is verified by the National Statistics Office of Georgia.
We also looked at the data provided by the National Statistics Office of Georgia regarding the volume of FDI in the first quarter of 2012. In this case, the data from the first quarter is compared to the corresponding period in the previous year and also to the corresponding period in 2010. The volume of FDI in the first quarter of 2012 amounted to USD 269 million which exceeded the corresponding quarter in the previous year by 55% and the first quarter of 2010 by 62% [here is shown a comparison to preliminary data of the first quarter (USD 174 million) and not to adjusted data of the first quarter (USD 210 million)].
The data by the National Statistics Office of Georgia regarding the volume of FDI in the first quarter of 2011 was prepared in a similar pattern as in 2012. Data is compared to the corresponding period in both the previous year and 2009. The Geostat website indicates the following: “Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in Georgia amounted to USD 174 million in the first quarter of 2011 which is 2,3 times higher than the data for the corresponding period in 2010 and 1,5 times higher than the corresponding period in 2009.
Conclusion
The National Statistics Office does not have a methodology of seasonal adjustments. The volume of investments in the first quarter of 2013 has increased as compared to the previous quarter. However, decline in the FDI in the first quarter was recorded as compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.
Correspondingly, we rate the statement by Nugzar Tsiklauri regarding the declining of investments in Georgia as TRUE.
According to the data, as compared to the last quarter of 2012, the volume of FDI has increased by USD 45 million. Compared to the corresponding period in the previous year, it has decreased by USD 43 million.
According to the National Statistics Office of Georgia, investments in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2012 were declining. After the last quarter of 2011, it was the first time in the first quarter of 2013 when the volume of investments increased as compared to the previous quarter.
The first quarter is considered to be economically passive; every subsequent quarter is more active than the previous quarter and so the most active quarter is the fourth. It should be noted that as compared to the most active previous quarter, investments in the first quarter of 2013 increased. It should also be taken into consideration that elections took place in Georgia in 2012. According to economic experts, elections have some impact on the investment environment.
The National Statistics Office does not have a methodology of seasonal adjustments. Accordingly, if the data is not seasonally adjusted, comparing any quarter to any other quarter (adjacent or non-adjacent) is not possible and only comparing parallel quarters of different years can be done.
Nugzar Tsiklauri states that the decrease in investments is verified by the National Statistics Office of Georgia.
We also looked at the data provided by the National Statistics Office of Georgia regarding the volume of FDI in the first quarter of 2012. In this case, the data from the first quarter is compared to the corresponding period in the previous year and also to the corresponding period in 2010. The volume of FDI in the first quarter of 2012 amounted to USD 269 million which exceeded the corresponding quarter in the previous year by 55% and the first quarter of 2010 by 62% [here is shown a comparison to preliminary data of the first quarter (USD 174 million) and not to adjusted data of the first quarter (USD 210 million)].
The data by the National Statistics Office of Georgia regarding the volume of FDI in the first quarter of 2011 was prepared in a similar pattern as in 2012. Data is compared to the corresponding period in both the previous year and 2009. The Geostat website indicates the following: “Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in Georgia amounted to USD 174 million in the first quarter of 2011 which is 2,3 times higher than the data for the corresponding period in 2010 and 1,5 times higher than the corresponding period in 2009.
Conclusion
The National Statistics Office does not have a methodology of seasonal adjustments. The volume of investments in the first quarter of 2013 has increased as compared to the previous quarter. However, decline in the FDI in the first quarter was recorded as compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.
Correspondingly, we rate the statement by Nugzar Tsiklauri regarding the declining of investments in Georgia as TRUE.
