Irakli Kobakhidze: “External trade turnover increased by 39.3% in January.”

Verdict: FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is HALF TRUE.

Exports increased by 19.3% in January 2025 as compared to the same period last year, rising from USD 339 million to USD 404 million. This growth included a 11.6% rise in domestic exports, from USD 167 million to USD 186 million, and a 26.7% rise in re-exports, from USD 172 million to USD 218 million.
Imports surged by 45.5% in the same period, rising from USD 1.1 billion to USD 1.6 billion. However, the composition of imports is crucial to consider. Imports of paintings grew by 2 million per cent, reaching USD 481 million, whilst sculpture imports rose by 75,000%, surpassing USD 33 million.
Total imports of painting and sculptures constituted just USD 9.2 million from 2013 to 2024 (a span of 120 months). However, this figure was 63 times higher in January 2025, reaching USD 514 million. Total imports would have declined by 1% and overall external trade would have increased by merely 3.7% instead of the reported 39.3% without these imported paintings and sculptures.
Works of art, such as paintings and sculptures, are not conventional trade goods and their one-time import cannot be considered a genuine rise in trade activity.
Considering the accuracy of the cited figures but the omission of exceptional factors, FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is HALF TRUE.

Analysis

Irakli Kobakhidze stated: “We have a very good indicator in the direction of foreign trade – GeoStat has published the data for January 2025, showing a 39.3% rise in foreign trade, which is a very significant rise for our country.”

Exports increased by 19.3% and reached USD 404 million whilst imports rose by 45.5%, reaching USD 1.6 billion in January 2025, according to GeoStat. Consequently, foreign trade turnover increased by 39.3%, surpassing USD 2 billion.

Whilst the figures cited by Irakli Kobakhidze are numerically accurate, the composition of trade is important to consider. There was an extraordinary increase in art imports in January, constituting a 2,004,058% rise from USD 24 thousand to USD 481 million. Furthermore, sculpture imports surged by 75,388%, rising from USD 44,000 to USD 33 million. This is not just an exceptional one-month peak. The total imports of paintings amounted to USD 7.8 million whilst sculpture imports totalled USD 1.4 million over the 12-year governance of the Georgian Dream. In other words, imports of paintings and sculptures surpassed the total of the past 12 years by 63 times in just one months.

Graph 1: Imports of Paintings and Sculptures (USD Million)

Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia

Imports would have declined by 1% and the overall trade turnover would have increased by just 3.7% when excluding paintings and sculptures – a significant contrast as compared to the reported 39.3% growth.

Graph 2: External Trade Turnover (USD Million)

Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia

The surge in the purchase of paintings and sculptures resulted in a sharp rise in imports from the United States and the United Kingdom, amounting to 196% and 2366%, respectively. Consequently, the US ranked first in Georgia’s imports with a 22.3% share whilst the UK took second place with 16.6%. Notably, the US held a 10.9% share, ranking third in January 2024, whereas the UK was outside the top ten, accounting for just 1%.

Changes in other commodity groups and trade partners was relatively modest and mostly within the standard range. Notably, imports from Turkey, which has consistently been Georgia’s top trade partner, dropped by 15% to USD 173 million whilst imports from Germany fell by 24%, Japan by nearly 10% and Italy by 26%. In contrast, imports from Russia increased by 14%, China by 51%, Azerbaijan by 15% and Bulgaria by 53%.

Amongst commodity groups, passenger car imports declined by 23% to USD 151 million and medicine imports fell by 20% to USD 48 million. Meanwhile, oil product imports increased by 33%, reaching USD 107 million and natural gas imports grew by 8.7% to USD 74 million.

Kyrgyzstan remained Georgia’s top export market in January 2025 with USD 74 million worth of products sold – including USD 68.6% million in light vehicles and USD 4.9 million in tobacco products, both of which fall under re-exports. Exports to Kyrgyzstan surged by 62% in January of this year. Azerbaijan ranked second with exports rising by 13% to USD 46 million and Kazakhstan followed with a 25% increase to USD 45 million. Exports to Armenia remained stable at USD 36 million whereas exports to Russia fell by 18% to USD 34 million, Turkey by 20% and China by 9.6%. Exports to Bulgaria surged by 1,211%, mainly due to a low base effect; copper ores accounted for USD 10.5 million in the USD 11.5 million exported to Bulgaria.

Passenger cars remained the top export commodity, totalling USD 130 million, followed by spirituous beverages at USD 14.3 million and copper ores at USD 13.9 million.

Whilst domestic exports grew by 11.6% to USD 186 million, they remain 21% lower than January 2022 and 30% below January 2023 levels.

Russia maintained its position as the primary destination for domestic exports with a 17% share, followed by Turkey and China, accounting for 10.9% and 8.7% respectively. The rest of the top ten markets include Bulgaria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Switzerland, Italy, Ukraine and Germany.

Copper ores ranked first amongst exported commodities, with 13.8 million tonnes exported in January 2025, as compared to zero exports in January 2024. Mineral waters ranked second with 13.4 million tonnes whilst wine saw a 29% decline and fell to third place with 12.8 million tonnes. Ferroalloys fell from first place last year to eighth place with exports halving. Zestaponi Ferro and Chiatura mines announced a five-month suspension of operations in November 2024.

Overall, whilst domestic exports and re-exports, as well as imports and thus external trade turnover all increased in January 2025 as compared to the same period last year, the rise in imports was driven by a one-time event. Excluding this factor, trade turnover would have grown by just 3.7% rather than 39.3%. Considering all the above, FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is HALF TRUE.