“The economy grew by 9.5% with export and tourism revenues reaching record highs.”

Vakhtang Tsintsadze: “The economy grew by 9.5% with export and tourism revenues reaching record highs.”

Verdict: FactCheck concludes that Vakhtang Tsintsadze’s statement is MOSTLY TRUE.

Preliminary data shows that the Georgian economy grew by 9.5% in 2024, marking the highest growth under the Georgian Dream’s governance, excluding 2021-2022, and outpacing the growth rates of most other countries.
Whilst commodity exports rose by 7.8%, marking a record high of USD 6.6 billion, domestic exports fell short of 2021 levels by USD 160 million and 2022 levels by over USD 700 million. Furthermore, the trade balance has worsened in percentage terms due to the higher growth rate of imports.
The number of international visitors has not yet reached the pre-pandemic levels with a deficit of over 0.5 million as compared to 2017. However, there is a slight increase of 0.2% as compared to 2019 when focusing on tourist-type visits. As for tourism income, it has risen by 35% in nominal terms or by 10% when adjusted for changes in the purchasing power of the USD.
The first part of Vakhtang Tsintsadze’s statement is accurate. The information about exports and tourism is also factually correct but both claims require further clarification. Due to the presence of precise numerical data but a lack of specifics, which may have led to inaccurate perceptions, FactCheck concludes that Vakhtang Tsintsadze’s statement is MOSTLY TRUE.

Analysis

When commenting on the economic growth in 2024, Vakhtang Tsintsadze, a member of the Georgian Dream party, stated: “The economy grew by 9.5%, with export and tourism revenues reaching record highs.”

Preliminary data show that the Georgian economy grew by 9.5% in 2024 with the highest rise of 11% in the third quarter and the lowest at 8.4% in the fourth quarter.

The government revised its economic growth projection for 2024 from 5.2% to 6%, then to 8.2% and finally to 9% given the higher-than-anticipated growth during the year.

Graph 1: GDP Growth Rate


Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia

Data for only three quarters of 2024 are available by sector, as of 5 February 2025. The education sector grew by 26%, information and communications by 22%, financial and insurance activities by 17%, construction by 17%, agriculture by 3% and healthcare by 2%, whilst the energy sector decreased by 11% in constant 2019 prices.

Preliminary data for the fourth quarter will be released in March and the revised data for the full year will be available in November. Whilst the revised figures may differ slightly from the preliminary data, such adjustments are typically small. For instance, growth was revised from 7.5% to 7.8% in 2023. With high probability, 2024 will mark the highest economic growth under the Georgian Dream government, excluding 2021-2022.

GeoStat has not published GDP figures in monetary or per capita terms, as of now. However, the Ministry of Finance’s preliminary data indicate that nominal GDP totalled GEL 91 billion (USD 33.5 billion) in 2024 whilst the GDP per capita amounted to GEL 24,965 (USD 9,030).

Vakhtang Tsintsadze also addressed exports and tourism. Commodity exports grew by 7.8% in 2024, reaching USD 6.6 billion, whilst imports rose by 8.1% to USD 16.9 billion. Consequently, the trade deficit expanded by 0.6 of a percentage point, reaching 44%.

Graph 2: Trade Turnover (USD Million)


Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia

Kyrgyzstan became Georgia’s largest export partner in 2024 with exports totalling USD 1.3 billion – 470% more than the cumulative figure for 1995-2021. Kyrgyzstan accounted for 19.6% of total exports. Notably, USD 1.2 billion comes from passenger car sales. Kazakhstan ranked second with USD 860 million in exports, 87% of which (USD 751 million) also came from light vehicles. Azerbaijan placed third with USD 725 million. The remaining ten export destinations included Russia, Armenia, Turkey, China, Uzbekistan, the US and Bulgaria.

Light vehicles lead Georgia’s exports, totalling USD 2.4 billion and accounting for 37% of total exports. Over 96% of these passenger car exports are concentrated in four destinations: Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Despite having the weakest economy and lower per capita income amongst the four aforementioned countries, Kyrgyzstan leads in both total vehicle exports and the export value per vehicle. The average export value of a car to Kyrgyzstan exceeds USD 34,500, whilst for all other countries combined (excluding Kyrgyzstan), it amounts to USD 17,250.

Graph 3: Light Vehicle Exports


Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia

Exports can be categorised into domestic exports and re-exports. GeoStat has been providing disaggregated data since 2014. Domestic exports accounted for an average of 70% of total exports from 2014 to 2022; however, this share declined to 47% in 2024 and further to 45.8% in 2024. Whilst domestic exports increased slightly in 2024 as compared to 2023, they remain below 2021 levels and exhibit an even larger gap as compared to 2022.

Graph 4: Exports (USD Million)


Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia

Re-exports surged primarily due to passenger car sales whilst the decline in demand and prices for copper ores and ferroalloys significantly contributed to the decline in domestic exports. Copper ore exports exceeded USD 1 billion in 2022 but had dropped to just USD 94 million by 2024. Additionally, ferroalloy exports fell from USD 453 million to USD 322 million and nitrogen fertiliser exports decreased from USD 281 million to USD 118 million during the same period. Despite the exports of wine, spirits and precious metals increased, these gains were insufficient to offset the decline in exports of other commodities.

Graph 5: Domestic Exports (USD Million)


Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia

Whilst re-exports are also beneficial from an economic standpoint, domestic exports are generally considered more valuable. Furthermore, increased reliance on a single sector or destination – such as light vehicle exports and Kyrgyzstan in Georgia’s case – poses several risks.

Vakhtang Tsintsadze also commented on tourism. International traveller visits increased by 4% in 2024 as compared to 2023, reaching 7.4 million, according to the National Tourism Administration, which relies on data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Despite the steady post-pandemic growth, this figure remains below the 2017-2019 levels. The primary reason for the aforementioned shortfall is a decline in one-day and other non-tourist visits. However, tourist visits specifically surpassed pre-pandemic levels, albeit by just 0.2%.

Table 1: Visits by International Travelers (1,000 Visits)


Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs of Georgia

Nominal tourism revenues surpassed pre-pandemic levels as early as 2022, unlike the number of tourists. However, real growth was only observed in 2023, accounting for changes in the purchasing power of the USD. Tourism revenues surpassed USD 4.4 billion in 2024, marking a 7% increase as compared to 2023 and a 35% increase from 2019. However, increase in 2024 as compared to 2019 constitutes 10% when adjusted for the USD inflation.

Whilst Russia remains the leading country in terms of tourism revenue, its share has decreased from 22.7% in 2023 to 19.2% in 2024. Turkey holds second place with a 13.8% share, followed by Israel in third with 9.9%.

Moreover, the volume of transactions made with foreign cards increased substantially by 21% as compared to 2023, reaching GEL 4.3 billion.

There were concerns that the tourism sector might face challenges in the fourth quarter amidst the political crisis. However, statistical data – whether in terms of tourist numbers or tourism revenue – do not indicate any significant issues, excluding statements from individual hotel managements.

The first part of Vakhtang Tsintsadze’s statement is accurate, as the economy has indeed grown by 9.5%, which can be considered high growth by any measure. However, whilst the information cited regarding exports and tourism are formally correct, further clarification is needed: exports have mainly increased due to re-exports, with domestic exports still falling short of the 2021-2022 levels and the trade deficit has risen in percentage terms; in tourism, only tourist visits have slightly exceeded pre-pandemic levels, whilst one-day visits and non-tourist visits have declined. The financial situation is positive, with tourism revenues surpassing both 2023 and 2019 figures. Given the accurate data but a lack of specifics, FactCheck concludes that Vakhtang Tsintsadze’s statement is MOSTLY TRUE.


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