Saba Buadze: “Instances of drug use and drug-related crime have been increasing annually.”

Verdict: Without a Verdict

It is not possible to evaluate the first part of Saba Buadze’s statement regarding drug use as relevant trustworthy data and research do not exist. The author of the statement acknowledged in his communication with FactCheck that it is challenging to observe drug use tendencies. However, two variables; namely, the percentage of positive drug test outcomes and the participation rate in the Maintenance Therapy Programme, may suggest an increase in the number of people using drugs according to Saba Buadze. FactCheck believes that the aforementioned data metrics are not sufficient to accurately evaluate the scope of drug use and thus refrains from evaluating this part of the statement.

Saba Buadze was referring to the proven and registered drug-related crimes reported by the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the second half of his statement. However, this data is directly interpreted and given the circumstances (the nature of drug-related crimes, different approaches to statistical recording by the Ministry, less trustworthiness in the data, shocks caused by the pandemic leading to misrepresentation of the overall picture and non-uniform trends), FactCheck believes that the data does not allow for an outright conclusion (a thorough research and comprehensive analysis of additional sources would be necessary, something which is beyond the scope of this article).

Considering the above circumstances, FactCheck leaves Saba Buadze’s statement WITHOUT A VERDICT and analyses only the publicly available data.

Analysis

The Lelo political party presented a nine-paragraph plan for drug policy on 19 June 2024 as a continuation of the three-paragraph plan presented by Mamuka Khazaradze in April 2024. The new plan highlights several measures, including the prevention of drugs entering the country and a stricter approach by the government towards drug sellers. One of the leaders of Lelo, Saba Buadze, stated whilst presenting the nine-paragraph plan: “Instances of drug use and drug-related crime have been increasing annually.”

FactCheck has evaluated Saba Buadze’s statement.

Saba Buadze emphasised that upward trajectories could be observed in two metrics, particularly drug use and drug-related crime.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs publishes monthly and annual statistics of drug-related crime. These statistics includes the number of registered and solved cases for each article of the Criminal Code of Georgia as well as the percentage of solved cases.

Graph 1: Drug-Related Crime Per Year

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs

It is essential to research the factors contributing to the increase or the decrease in statistical data for a given year whilst analysing the statistics.

Drug crime exhibited a decreasing tendency from 2016 to 2018. However, the situation changed in 2019 as drug crime increased sharply by 51.33% as compared to the previous year. Notably, the total number of registered crimes also substantially increased during the same period.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs has attributed the aforementioned surge to significant improvements in the crime registration system and methodology. The then Minister of Internal Affairs, Giorgi Gakharia, stated that crime statistics were “embellished’ by the previous ministers, hence not providing an accurate picture of the crime situation prior to 2019.

Drug-related crime significantly declined by approximately 46% in 2020. Whilst the rate increased slightly in the subsequent year, it remained relatively low as compared to the figures observed in the previous years.

Organisations that have analysed the factors influencing the statistics suggest that the downward trend in drug crime can possibly be attributed to two reasons. Firstly, the reduction in crime rates could be related to a decrease in law enforcement activities during the pre-election period. Secondly, the restrictions imposed as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as limitations on movement, social interactions and other activities, might have impacted the detection of drug crimes.

There was a significant increase in registered drug crimes in 2022 as compared to the previous two years, according to the 2022 report by the Social Justice Centre, which analysed drug policy trends in Georgia. This increase in 2022 approached the data recorded before the pandemic in 2019. The lower statistics for 2021 and 2022 were likely influenced by the regulatory changes rather than an actual improvement according to the report. Notably, drug crimes rose by 20% in 2023 as compared to the previous year. Furthermore, data for January-March 2024 shows that 1,603 drug-related crimes were registered, marking a 19.5% increase as compared to the same period in 2023 and represents the highest number of drug crimes recorded in the past six years.

Whilst the increase in statistics in 2022 was likely influenced by the post-pandemic base year effect, other factors may have also contributed to these trends. For instance, one contributing factor could be systemic changes in police control, either through the weakening or tightening of enforcement measures. The Social Justice Centre claims that: “The reasons for the substantial increase in registered drug crimes are complex and uncovering these reasons requires strong efforts from the relevant institutions.”

Furthermore, it is essential to note that the nature of most drug-related crimes makes it challenging to directly correlate the registration rate to the actual situation in any given year. For instance, whilst drug possession is a criminal offense and can persist over years, its impact on statistics is only reflected in the year it is officially recorded.

Considering the above analysis, the drug-related crime rate in 2022 approached the pre-pandemic levels of 2019 and even surpassed them in 2023. Furthermore, the number of registered drug crimes peaked in the first quarter of 2024. However, due to the aforementioned factors (the nature of drug-related crimes, different approaches to statistical recording by the Ministry of Internal affairs, the impact of the pandemic), publicly available crime statistics alone fail to accurately present the actual tendencies.

Regarding the second half of the statement about the increase in drug use, it is important to clarify that based on registered crime statistics, the statistics of drug users cannot be accurately observed for the following reasons:

Firstly, consuming a small number of narcotic substances without a doctor’s prescription is classified as an administrative offence rather than a criminal one. As a result, such cases do not appear in registered crime statistics. Additionally, current legislation exempts individuals from administrative responsibility if they voluntarily surrender a small number of drugs or seeks medical help related to drug use without a medical prescription. Consequently, more specific research methodologies are essential to accurately assess tendencies in drug use.

The National Drug Observatory was founded to monitor the drug situation in the country and prepare relevant studies and reports by Order N94 of the Minister of Justice on 16 January 2020. The Centre produces an annual report on the drug situation, analysing the state of drug-related circumstances in Georgia for each year, according to their website.

The Centre states that: “It is not possible to fully study the spread (prevalence) of drug use from the information annually gathered by state agencies or other types of institutions every year due to the specificities of drug use such as drug legislation and stigmatisation of the issue. Thematic studies are conducted to address this issue, such as the Survey of Psychoactive Substance Use in the General Population (GPS), the European School Study on Alcohol, Tobacco and Drug Use (ESPAD), amongst others. Researching and quantifying high-risk drug users is particularly challenging due to additional factors such as stigma and discrimination, further complicating efforts to reach this population.”

FactCheck reviewed the reports by the National Drug Observatory which analysed both national and international thematic studies. However, FactCheck is unable to provide precise conclusions whether drug use increases per year due to reasons such as the lack of systematised information and other challenges as described above.

Furthermore, FactCheck contacted the author of this statement to access a relevant source for evaluating the extent of drug use. The author acknowledged that tracking drug use tendencies is challenging, highlighting that the percentage of positive outcomes in drug testing statistics and the increasing number of beneficiaries in the state Maintenance Therapy Programmes could suggest growth in drug use. FactCheck believes that these statistics are insufficient for an accurate estimation of the scope of drug use and thus refrains from concluding a verdict on this part of the statement.

Considering the above circumstances, FactCheck leaves Saba Buadze’s statement WITHOUT A VERDICT.