Irakli Kobakhidze: “An increasing number of EU member states are experiencing economic decline and entering recession.”

Verdict: FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is HALF TRUE.

The total economy of the European Union grew by 1% in 2024. Notably, 22 out of the 27 member states recorded economic growth whilst five experienced contractions. This marks an improvement as compared to 2023, when the EU economy expanded by 0.4%, with nine members experiencing a decline. Neither five nor nine out of 27 member states can be reasonably described as representing an “increasingly large part.”

Although the GDP growth rate of the EU continues to lag behind the global average, there has been no overall economic contraction since 2012, excluding the pandemic year of 2020. It is also crucial to recognise that a slowdown in economic growth and a recession represent different economic phenomena.

Furthermore, other key economic indicators do not support the claim that there is an ongoing recession or a crisis within the EU. The unemployment rate in February 2025 constituted 5.8% whereas the pre-pandemic level stood at 7% in February 2019.  

Whilst the EU as a whole is not experiencing a recession, certain individual member states did face economic contractions in 2023 and 2024. This is a concerning development but it applies to only four out of the 27 member states.

Context is essential beyond statistical figures. Such misinformation against the backdrop of increasingly strained relations with the West may aim to suggest that the EU is undergoing a decline and that Georgia does not belong within it. However, despite Georgia’s higher current growth rate, its GDP per capita – adjusted for purchasing power parity – still remains below that of Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest member state, although the gap is gradually narrowing.

Given both the genuine challenges faced by the EU and the factual inaccuracies – namely the exaggerated negative framing and contextual distortion – FactCheck has assessed Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement as HALF TRUE.

Analysis

When commenting on the state of the EU economy on Europe Day, 9 May, Irakli Kobakhidze stated: “An increasing number of EU member states are experiencing economic decline and entering recession. We would like these trends to turn in a positive direction in Europe.”

The European Union is comprised of 27 member states. Five of these countries experienced economic contraction in 2024 according to data from Eurostat: Germany (-0.2%), Estonia (-0.3%), Latvia (-0.4%), Austria (-1.2%) and Finland (-0.1%). The remaining 22 members recorded positive growth – albeit in many cases modest, but nonetheless significant. Overall, the EU economy grew by 1% in 2024. The arithmetic average of the growth rates across all member states constituted 1.6% which would be the growth rate if each country’s economy were of equal . However, in reality, Germany’s 0.2% decline had a more pronounced effect on the EU-wide growth rate than Malta’s 6% expansion.

Graph 1: GDP Growth Rates of European Union Member States (above – 2024 figures, below – 2023 figures)

Source: European Statistical System

A 1% growth rate is modest by any standard and the economic contraction in five out of 27 EU countries is indeed cause of concern as it implies that nearly one in five members experienced a decline. Notably, Germany also experienced a decline – the largest economy in Europe and third largest in the world – nevertheless, the overall picture is not as severe as portrayed by Irakli Kobakhidze. Economic growth, albeit modest, was recorded in 22 of the 27 EU member countries, representing 81% of the Union.

Despite the challenges, the situation has shown improvement as compared to 2023, when the economies of nine member states contracted, resulting in an overall growth rate of just 0.4%.

In four countries – Germany, Austria, Finland and Estonia – the economy contracted in both 2023 and 2024. Whilst a two-year consecutive decline indicates a more complex and serious issue, this trend is observed in only four out of 27 countries and therefore cannot be classified as affecting an “increasingly large part” of the Union.

The EU economy grew by 3.5% in 2022 and no member state entered a recession. Furthermore, all 28 members – including the United Kingdom, which left the EU in 2020 – recorded positive economic growth in 2019, prior to the pandemic. The economic decline in 2020 and the subsequent high growth in 2021 were driven by extraordinary, non-economic factors and thus, these two years are not suitable for comparison.

It is a fact that the EU’s economic growth rate has slowed in recent years. However, the EU economy has not entered a recession since 2012 – excluding the pandemic year of 2020. It is crucial to recognise that a slowdown in economic growth and a recession represent different economic phenomena.

Furthermore, other key economic indicators do not support the claim that there is an ongoing recession or a crisis within the EU. The unemployment rate in February 2025 constituted 5.8% whereas the pre-pandemic level stood at 7% in February 2019. 

The reasons behind the European Union’s relatively low economic growth rate are the subject of broader analysis. However, in brief, two primary factors can be highlighted. First, advanced economies typically experience slower growth compared to developing countries – a pattern that applies in most countries, though not universally. Second, the EU faces bureaucratic, regulatory and various other internal issues, further compounded by the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war since 2022.

Graph 2: GDP Growth Rates in the EU and Worldwide

Source: International Monetary Fund

The EU economy grew by a total of 5.2% during 2022-2024 whereas the global economy expanded by 10.8% – more than twice as much. Looking at the longer term, the EU recorded a cumulative growth of 27.1% between 2013 and 2024 as compared to the 45.5% global growth.

Context is also critical beyond factual inaccuracies. Statements such as “Europe is in crisis” in light of the recent deterioration in relations with the West can be interpreted as suggesting that negative developments are unfolding in the EU and that Georgia should distance itself from it.

Although Georgia’s economic growth rate – both before and after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war – has consistently outpaced that of the EU, its GDP per capita, including when adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), still remains lower than that of Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest member state. However, the gap has been narrowing year by year.

In conclusion, whilst some EU countries did experience economic contractions in 2023-2024 and the overall growth rate declined, only nine member states, or 33%, recorded economic downturns in 2023 whereas in 2024 this number fell to five countries, or 19% – shares that do not represent the majority. Moreover, the EU’s overall economy has not experienced a decline since 2012, excluding the pandemic year of 2020. Growth modestly accelerated in 2024 as compared to 2023. Other key economic indicators have also remained stable with the unemployment rate dropping below the pre-pandemic levels. Given both the genuine challenges faced by the EU and the factual inaccuracies – namely the exaggerated negative framing and contextual distortion – FactCheck has assessed Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement as HALF TRUE.