Natia Turnava: “Inflation has been under control for over two years.”
Verdict: FactCheck concludes that Natia Turnava’s statement is TRUE.
Consumer prices began to rise rapidly in Georgia following the pandemic with the inflation rate reaching 9.6% in 2021. Growth in the cost of goods and services continued into 2022, hitting 11.9%.
Inflation began to decline sharply starting in 2023 – first to 2.5% and then to 1.1% in 2024. The rate of price increases accelerated slightly in January-April 2025, reaching 2.8%, though still within the target inflation rate of 3%.
In addition to this significant decline, Georgia’s inflation rate in 2023-2024 was amongst the lowest both in the region and across the continent. Thus, FactCheck concludes that Natia Turnava’s statement is TRUE.
Analysis
President of the National Bank of Georgia, Natia Turnava, stated on TV Imedi’s Imedis Dila programme (from 6:10): “Most importantly, we have had inflation under control for over two years now – close to the target level, even below it – and it is expected to stabilise around that mark this year.”
Inflation – the rise in consumer prices – is a common phenomenon in market economies. Therefore, the problem is not inflation itself, but high inflation.
The consumption basket in Georgia includes 305 goods and services, grouped into 12 commodity categories, with each item assigned a specific weight based on its importance and frequency of consumption. For example, a 5% rise in the price of bread would have a greater impact on overall inflation than a 35% rise in notary service fees.
Monetary policy is set by the National Bank, whose primary objective is to ensure price stability, as defined in Article 3, Paragraph 1. The regulator can utilise several tools to achieve the aforementioned goal.
The inflation rate rose rapidly in 2021 following the pandemic, reaching 9.6% - the highest level since 2008. The situation worsened further in 2022, with consumer prices increasing by 11.9%, marking a record high for the 21st century. Inflation dropped substantially in the following years: to 2.5% in 2023 and further down to 1.1% in 2024. The inflation rate stands at 2.8% as of January-April 2025.
Georgia’s inflation target has been set at 3% since 2018. A notable deviation from this target was observed in 2021 and 2022.
Graph 1: Inflation Rate in Georgia
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
Georgia’s inflation rate in 2021, following the pandemic, exceeded both the global average and that of nearly all European and neighbouring countries, except for Turkey. Annual inflation would have been even higher were it not for the National Statistics Office’s decision to classify a government-issued utility voucher as a price reduction in utility services, artificially lowering the overall inflation rate. However, price growth was recorded in the utilities category in the following year, due to the adjusted base effect, even though tariffs had not increased. GeoStat later issued an official explanation regarding this adjustment.
Inflation rates surged in most countries in 2022. Consumer prices increased at a faster pace than in Georgia in six EU member states: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia. The main driver for this acceleration was the economic implications of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Inflation began to decline worldwide starting in 2023; however, the scale of the decline in Georgia was significantly greater. In particular, the inflation rate observed globally fell by two percentage points – from 8.6% to 6.6% – whilst in Georgia, it declined by 9.4 percentage points – from 11.9% to 2.5%. Notably 26 amongst the 27 European Union member states recorded higher inflation rates than Georgia with five countries seeing double-digit inflation. The only EU country with a lower rate than Georgia was Belgium. Furthermore, only Lithuania and Finland experienced lower inflation figures within the EU as compared to Georgia in 2024.
Graph 2: Inflation Rates
Source: International Monetary Fund
Although Turkey consistently had a higher inflation rate amongst neighbours from 2021 to 2024, this comparison is less relevant as inflation in Turkey is a systemic issue that did not emerge recently. Inflation was lower in Azerbaijan and Russia than in Georgia in 2021, but it was higher in both countries from 2022 to 2024. Notably, the impact of the war must be taken into account in Russia’s case. Additionally, Armenia is the only neighbouring country where inflation has remained lower than Georgia’s over the past four years.
Whilst inflation in Georgia reached a 23-year high in 2022, the extent of this deterioration was smaller than in most other countries. Had GeoStat not treated the utility voucher as a price reduction, the gap between the 2021 and 2022 inflation rates would have been narrower. Georgia’s situation in 2021 may be assessed as more severe than in 2022 when comparing consumer price growth across European and regional countries.
The improvement starting in 2023 is evident – and this is clearly reflected in data. The pace of price increases slowed even further in 2024. Inflation dropped to 0% in the food and non-alcoholic beverages category (referring to the overall category – not each of the 92 individual products within it). Inflation increased in January-April 2025; however, this rise is not alarming, as it remains within the National Bank’s target range (FactCheck cannot assess how inflation will evolve from May to December. Therefore, the part of Natia Turnava’s statement predicting that inflation will stabilise around the target level did not influence the final verdict).
Inflation not only declined significantly in 2023 and 2024 but also fell below the target rate, aligning with some of the lowest figures in the region. Inflation remained within the target range during the January-April period of the current year as well. Thus, FactCheck concludes that Natia Turnava’s statement is TRUE.
