Irakli Kobakhidze: “The number of those employed has risen by 195,000 over the past three years.”

Verdict: FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is MOSTLY FALSE.

Irakli Kobakhidze compared the number of employed individuals in the fourth quarter of 2024 with the annual figure for 2021. This means the data is being compared to a period impacted by the pandemic when job losses were particularly severe and employment reached its lowest level in the past decade. Furthermore, quarterly employment figures should be compared to the corresponding quarterly data, whilst annual figures should be analysed against other annual figures to account for seasonality in employment trends.

The real picture is as follows: the number of employed people increased by 106.6 thousand in 2024 as compared to 2019 (the pre-pandemic period), according to GeoStat. Total employment has risen by 190.3 thousand over the 12 years of the Georgian Dream’s governance, averaging approximately 15,800 new jobs per year. Therefore, not only did employment not increase by 195,000 in the past three years, but it did not reach the aforementioned figure even over the entire 12-year period of the Georgian Dream’s governance.

The upward trend in employment indicators since 2022 can be attributed to several factors: the recovery of jobs lost during the pandemic, the creation of new jobs as a natural outcome of economic growth and a rise in public sector employment, including the integration of socially vulnerable individuals into artificially created public work programmes, amongst others.

Thus, Irakli Kobakhidze’s comparison of statistical data is manipulative and significantly overstates the actual progress. Considering the above, FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is MOSTLY FALSE.

Analysis

Irakli Kobakhidze stated: “The number of those employed has risen by 195,000 over the past three years.”

Irakli Kobakhidze compared the number of employed individuals in the fourth quarter of 2024 with the annual figure for 2021. This comparison of statistical data is manipulative and significantly overstates the actual progress. First and foremost, it is important to clarify that comparing quarterly data with annual figures is inappropriate, as seasonal employment substantially affects employment levels. Annual data should be compared with annual data, whilst quarterly figures should be evaluated against the corresponding quarter of the previous years to account for seasonality and accurately analyse trends over time. Furthermore, the comparison is made with 2021 – a period when employment rates plummeted due to the pandemic and related economic restrictions. Notably, 2021 recorded the lowest employment rate in the past decade (2015-2024).

We compared the annual employment figure for 2024 to that of the pre-pandemic period, specifically 2019 to accurately analyse employment trends. The number of employed individuals increased by 106.6 thousand, including a rise of 62.9 thousand in hired employees and 43.6 thousand in self-employed people during this period, according to GeoStat.

Moreover, the employment rate (the percentage of employed individuals within the 15+ age group) grew from 42.7% to 47.1% over the same period. Whilst this increase is primarily driven by the rise in the number of employed persons, a decline in the country’s population above 15 also influenced the indicator.

Regarding the employment trend in recent years, employment rates declined sharply in 2020-2021 due to the severe and prolonged economic restrictions imposed during the pandemic. Whilst employment saw significant improvement in 2022, it had not yet fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Employment rates increased substantially in 2023 and 2024 (see Graph 1).

Irakli Kobakhidze cited the pandemic period as a point of comparison – a period when employment had dropped to its lowest level, thus significantly overstating the progress made in job creation. In reality, not only did employment not increase by 195,000 in the past three years, but it did not reach the aforementioned figure even over the entire 12-year period of the Georgian Dream’s governance. The total increase in employment constitutes 190.3 thousand as compared to 2012.

Graph 1: Number of Employed Individuals and Employment Rate, 2015-2024

Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia

Additionally, it is essential to understand the factors that contributed to the increase in the number of employed people in the country between 2022 and 2024. Firstly, the end of the pandemic and the lifting of related economic restrictions led to the restoration of jobs lost during the pandemic. Moreover, new jobs were created across both the private and public sectors. Furthermore, the employment programme for socially vulnerable individuals, which was launched in the spring of 2022, also contributed to the growth in employment to a certain extent. The objective of the programme is to encourage the employment of socially vulnerable, employable individuals, primarily through artificially created public jobs with a salary of GEL 300. It is important to view the aforementioned programme not as a genuine employment initiative, but as a social programme funded by the state budget, resulting in a rise in employment statistics.

Thus, comparing employment figures to a period impacted by the pandemic when a certain number of people were unable to work due to economic restrictions is manipulative and overstates the current growth in employment. Additionally, it is incorrect to compare quarterly figures with annual data. The real picture is as follows: the number of employed people increased by 106.6 thousand according to the 2024 data, as compared to 2019; that is, over the past five years. Considering the above, FactCheck concludes that Irakli Kobakhidze’s statement is MOSTLY FALSE.