Natia Turnava: “[According to current forecasts] Georgia is one of those countries in the region which will have the fastest economic recovery.”
Verdict: FactCheck concludes that Natia Turnava’s statement is MOSTLY TRUE.
Resume:
It is unclear which region the Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development meant and to which specific organisations she was referring in her statement. For comparison’s sake, FactCheck used the World Bank’s Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region which comprises Georgia and 22 additional countries. [1]. For the analysis, we can use the forecasts published by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as international organisations whose content can be used for references.
According to existing forecasts, Georgia has indeed been outstanding in the region. However, of necessary mention is that high economic growth forecasts do not guarantee that these forecasts will definitely come true. For instance, Georgia was leading in the region based on 2020’s economic growth forecasts, although it ended up 16th among the region’s 23 countries given the stringent pandemic-related restrictions. Affirmatory talk vis-à-vis forecasts is misguided if the conditions on which the forecasts are based are not met. Therefore, the claim is not a fact and the authorities will have to invest serious efforts in order to achieve the expressed goal.
Analysis
The Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia, Natia Turnava, speaking about economic growth forecasts, stated: “All international organisations agree that Georgia is one of those countries in the region which will have the fastest economic recovery.”
It is unclear which region the Minister meant and to which specific organisations she was referring in her statement. There is no universal definition for a region and different organisations provide various definitions of regions. Therefore, without a specific definition, the Minister’s statement gives rise to certain questions. For comparison, it would be proper to use the World Bank’s Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region which comprises Georgia and 22 additional countries. For the analysis, we can use the forecasts published by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since these are international organisations whose content can be used for references.
The World Bank has published economic growth forecasts for 2021-2022. According to these forecasts, Georgia will indeed be a leader in the region together with Montenegro with a 5% economic growth rate.
Graph 1: Average Economic Growth Forecasts for 2021-2022, World Bank Estimates
Source: World Bank
The International Monetary Fund has released economic growth forecasts up until 2025. According to 2021-2025 average economic growth forecasts, Georgia is tied with Uzbekistan in the second-third positions with a 5.5% economic growth, outperformed by only Kyrgyzstan.
Graph 2: Average Economic Growth Forecasts in 2021-2025, IMF Estimates
Source: International Monetary Fund
However, of necessary mention is that high economic growth forecasts do not guarantee that these forecasts will definitely come true. For instance, Georgia was leading in the region based on 2020’s economic growth forecasts, although it ended up 16th among the region’s 23 countries given the stringent pandemic-related restrictions.
[1] Except Kosovo which Georgia does not recognise.
