During the political debates on Rustavi 2, member of the Georgia Dream, Tamar Khulordava, stated: “After the global recession, this year was distinguished by lowest economic growth rates in all countries.”
FactChecktook interest in the accuracy of this statement.
In order to verify the accuracy of Tamar Khulordava’s statement, FactCheckused the real GDP growth rate data published by the International Monetary Fund. According to the data of the Fund, the 2016 economic growth rates after the global recession, as compared to respective benchmark years, have reduced for only three groups of countries: Latin America and the Caribbean (-0.6%), developing countries of Asia (6.5%) and countries with developed economies (2%). As for the remaining nine groups of countries, the 2016 real GDP growth rate is not the lowest in the calculating period.
Table 1:
Economic Growth Rate of the Country Groups, 2009-2016
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| World | -0.1 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Top Economies | -3.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| European Countries | -4.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | -0.9 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Top Large Economies | -3.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Other Top Economies | -0.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| European Union | -4.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Developing Economies | 2.9 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Commonwealth of Independent States | -6.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | -2.8 | -0.3 |
| Developing Countries of Asia | 7.5 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| Developing Countries of Europe | -3.0 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| Largest Economies of Asia | 2.4 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Latin America and the Caribbean | -1.8 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -0.6 |
| Middle East and North Africa | 1.5 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
For further clarity, we looked into the economic growth rates of Georgia and its neighbours from 2010 to 2016. The economic growth rate of Georgia in 2016 (2.7%) is definitely the lowest in the calculating period. Similar trend can be observed in the case of Azerbaijan as its economy reduced by 2.4% in 2016. Despite this, for Ukraine (1.5%), Armenia (3.2%), Russia (-0.8%) and Turkey (3.3%), 2016 has not been the year with the lowest economic growth rate.
Table 2:
Economic Growth Rates of Georgia and its Neighbours from 2010 to 2016
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| Georgia | -3.7 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Ukraine | -15.1 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -6.6 | -9.9 | 1.5 |
| Azerbaijan | 9.3 | 5.0 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | -2.4 |
| Armenia | -14.2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| Russia | -7.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | -3.7 | -0.8 |
| Turkey | -4.8 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.3 |
According to the 2017 Report
of the World Bank, the global economic growth in 2016 equalled 2.3%. This is lower than in any year since the global recession of 2009. The reasons for the reduction of growth rate are reduced world trade, investments and increased political instability. According to the same Report, the forecast global economic growth rate of 2017 is 2.7%.
The International Monetary Fund published similar data in October 2016 Report. According to the Fund, the lowest global economic growth rate since 2010 was recorded in 2016, reaching just 3.1%. However, in her statement Tamar Khulordava does not talk about the overall global economic growth data but rather about the records of individual countries, which tell a different story.
Conclusion In order to verify the accuracy of Tamar Khulordava’s statement FactCheck
looked into the International Monetary Fund’s data of economic growth rates from 2010 to 2016 by groups of countries as well as looking at the economic growth rates of Georgia and its neighbouring countries.
Despite the fact that the overall global economic growth rate in 2016 was lower than in any year since the global recession, the 2016 economic growth rate has not been the lowest for every individual country.
Hence, FactCheck concludes that Tamar Khulordava’s statement is FALSE.
