“We have made a significant progress in different fields of the economy this year: the economy is growing, trade has grown by 12% and we have a noticeable growth in exports for the first time in recent years.”
On 30 September 2014, Giorgi Kvirikashvili talked about the positive changes in the economy. He focused upon the 12% growth in foreign trade and also referred to a high level of growth in exports in the current year.
FactChecktook interest in this statement and verified its accuracy.
According to the data of the National Statistics Office of Georgia, the real growth of GDP amounted to 6.1% in the first eight months of 2014. It equalled 7.2% in the first quarter of the year and 5.2% in the second quarter. It should be pointed out, however, that these figures are not very high as the real growth of GDP in the first two quarters of 2011 amounted to 6.6% and 8.2%, respectively. In addition, it should also be noted that the economic growth of Georgia has varied from 6%-7% in recent years. Only in 2013 did it fall to 3.2%. According to the economic forecasts, the growth rate of the Georgian economy for 2014 is set at 5%. However, 2014 would not be the first year when the actual growth of the economy exceeded the forecasts.
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia[1]
As for the foreign trade, the trade turnout from January to August 2014 was 11.6% higher than those of the previous years and amounted to USD 7,411 million. The trade balance[2] of Georgia is still negative in the first eight months of 2014 and amounts to USD 3,583 million which is 14.8% higher than that of the same period of the previous year. Chart 2 depicts foreign trade figures from 2009 to 2014.*
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
Export amounted to USD 1,914 million in 2014 which constitutes 25.8% of the foreign trade. The export equalled USD 1,760 million in the same period of 2013 and constituted 27% of the total foreign trade. According to the data of the first eight months of 2014, export has increased by 8.7% as compared to the same period of the previous year. It should be pointed out, however, that this is definitely not the highest growth as the growth in export amounted to 13.6% in the same period of 2013 whilst in 2010 and 2011 the figures varied between 36% and 38%.
The share of import in the foreign trade turnout remains very high, amounting to 74.2%. The value of imported goods amounted to USD 5,497 million in 2014 which is 22.6% higher than that of the previous year. The growth of import indicates the increased demand inside the country which is due to the growth of incomes and, therefore, is a positive trend.
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
Conclusion According to the data of the first eight months of 2014, the real growth of GDP is 6.1%. It amounted to 7.2% in the first quarter of the year and 5.2% in the second. These, however, are not very high figures as the quarterly growth of GDP varied from 6% to 8% in recent years. It should also be pointed out that the GDP real growth varied from 6% to 7% in recent years whilst the economic forecasts set this year’s growth at 5%.
The foreign trade turnout of Georgia amounted to USD 7,411 million this year which is 11.5% higher than that of the previous year. The growth of export equalled 8.8% and constituted 25.8% of the total foreign trade. It amounted to 13.6% in 2013. Even though positive economic changes are indeed taking place this year, it should be pointed out that these are not record figures as Georgia has seen higher economic growth in recent years (with the exception of 2013).
Hence, Giorgi Kvirikashvili’s statement: “We have made a significant progress in different fields of the economy this year: the economy is growing, trade has grown by 12% and we have a noticeable growth in exports for the first time in recent years,” is HALF TRUE.
