“In January-November 2013, the negative trade balance of Georgia has improved by 7% as compared to the same period of 2012 amounting to a total of 4.446 billion.”
Meeting with representatives of the business sector on 15 January 2014, the Prime Minister of Georgia discussed the current issues of the Georgian economy and touched upon the matter of foreign trade: “In January-November 2013, the negative trade balance of Georgia has improved by 7% as compared to the same period of 2012 amounting to a total of 4.446 billion. Furthermore, the number of Georgia’s trade partners rose to 133. Of those, a positive trade balance was observed with 41 countries. In January-August 2013, the export of agricultural products from Georgia grew by 20% relative to the same period of 2012 and totalled USD 383 million.”
FactCheckexamined the matter of Georgian foreign trade and checked the accuracy of the PM’s statement.
Table 1: External Trade Indicators of Georgia for 2012-2013
As can be gathered from the table, as of January-November 2013, the negative balance of external trade (import minus export) amounted to USD 4.446 billion which is precisely the figure indicated by the Prime Minister. This number falls behind the indicator of the same period of 2012 (USD 4.994 billion) by USD 548 million. This difference reveals an 11% improvement in the negative balance of external trade in 2013 as compared to 2012. Although 11% exceeds the figure named by the Prime Minister – 7%, it only further reinforces the PM’s point regarding the advancement registered in external trade in 2013.
Table 2: External Trade Balance of Georgia
In line with the data received from GeoStat, Georgia had a positive trade balance with 40 countries in 2013 while in 2012, the number of such countries amounted to 47. Even though the number registered in 2012 (47) surpasses the indicator of 2013 (40), in 2013 the trade surplus with these countries saw an increase as compared to 2012 going up from USD 399.4 million to USD 433 million.
Table 2 further informs that the number of Georgia’s trade partners totalled 134 in 2013 while in 2012, the indicator stood at 148. Therefore, the number of trade partners did not rise but fell by 14 countries. However, it is of note that based upon the indices of the external trade deficit, the indicator of 2013 (USD 4 billion 965.1 million) is USD 499.7 million less than the indicator of 2012 (USD 5 billion 464.7 million).
Table 3: Dynamics of the External Trade Balance of Georgia
It is also of interest to examine the dynamics of trade deficit over the last couple years. As can be seen in Table 3, the negative balance of external trade increases in 2008 relative to 2007 (the period of the Georgian-Russian war); we observe a decline in 2009 as compared to 2008 and starting from 2009 the indices take an upturn again. The numbers are surging beginning from 2009 and reach a peak in 2012 at USD 5 billion 464 million whereas in 2013, as noted above, the trade deficit starts decreasing in comparison to 2012, shows a notable improvement and comes close to the indicator witnessed in 2011.
In keeping with the data published on the website of GeoStat, in January-August 2013, the export of Georgian agricultural products totalled USD 383 million while in the same period of 2012, the volume of export amounted to USD 319 million. As becomes evident from these figures, the export of agricultural products from Georgia grew by exactly 20% during the January-August period of 2013 as compared to the same period of 2012.
Conclusion
In the course of our query about the accuracy of Irakli Gharibashvili’s statement it has been established that as of January-November 2013 the negative balance of foreign trade amounted to USD 4 billion 446 million which reveals an 11% improvement in comparison to the indicators of 2012. A positive balance of trade was witnessed in respect to 40 countries in 2013. As for the number of trade partner countries, it has not grown but dropped to 134. However, this notwithstanding, with regard to the trade deficit 2013 shows a notable improvement as compared to 2012. The export of agricultural products totalled USD 383 million in January-August 2013 while in the same period of 2012 the indicator was at USD 319 million. Therefore, relative to the same period of 2012, the export of agricultural products has increased in January-August 2013 by 20%.
Based upon the findings laid out in the article, we conclude that the Prime Minister’s statement: “In January-November 2013, the negative trade balance of Georgia has improved by 7% as compared to the same period of 2012 amounting to a total of 4.446 billion. Furthermore, the number of Georgia’s trade partners rose to 133. Of those, a positive trade balance was observed with 41 countries. In January-August 2013, the export of agricultural products from Georgia grew by 20% relative to the same period of 2012 and totalled USD 383 million,” is TRUE.
